On Asymmetry of Exchange Rate Volatility in New EU Member and Candidate Countries

In this paper, we examine the exchange rate volatility in selected new EU Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) and candidate countries (Croatia, Romania, Turkey) using TARCH model and daily data from the period May 2004 – December 2006. Besides the volatility estimation, the paper analyzes the asymmetric effects. The results suggest that some symptoms of asymmetry were found in all exchange rates except for CZK/EUR. However, the most distinct effects are evident in Slovakia and Turkey where the appreciation of the national currency and the appreciation-side deviation from the target exchange rate contribute significantly to the increase in the exchange rate volatility.asymmetry; European Union; exchange rate volatility; TARCH models

Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

This paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approach to the EMP estimation on these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends as well as magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP to grow. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all countries analyzed.Exchange Market Pressure; Model-dependent Approach; Model-independent Approach; European Union; Euro-candidate Countries

Exchange Market Pressure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regime in the Euro-Candidates

In this paper we estimate exchange market pressure (EMP) in four euro-candidate countries over the period 1995-2008. We apply model-dependent as well as modelindependent approach to the EMP estimation. Since all euro-candidates have to fulfil the exchange rate stability convergence criterion we analyze EMP in context of exchange rate arrangement and develop a continuous measure of de facto exchange rate regime. The paper provides no evidence of serious relationship between EMP and de facto regime. Therefore, the shift towards ERM II should not stimulate EMP to growth and pose an a priori threat to fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion.exchange market pressure; de facto exchange rate regime; eurocandidate countries; ERM II

Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and in the United States. Both the long- and short-term causalities between these variables are explored using monthly data. The paper also endeavors to answer the question of whether the linkages between the analyzed economic variables are of similar intensity and direction in old and new EU member countries, and whether or how relationships have changed. The results show much stronger causality in countries with developed capital and foreign-exchange markets (i.e., old EU member countries and the United States). Evidence also suggests more powerful long- and short-term causal relations during the 1993-2003 period than during 1970-92. Causalities seem to be predominantly unidirectional, with the direction running from stock prices to exchange rates. Finally, we detected strong relations when applying the real effective exchange rate than the nominal effective exchange rate.stock prices; exchange rates; cointegration; error correction model; Granger causality

Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion

This paper assesses exchange rate development and volatility in six new EU member states (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) during the period November 1996 - April 2006. The study is motivated by the unavoidable participation of the new member states’ currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and fulfillment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion. The development of exchange rates is examined by the calculation of various rates of return and the exchange rate volatility is analyzed using moving average standard deviations of the annualized daily returns of the nominal bilateral exchange rates. The results suggest that the dilemma of “participation or non-participation in ERM II” have been solved properly so far by all countries analyzed. The three ERM II participating currencies (SIT, CYP, SKK) entered into the mechanism at the optimal time of stable exchange rate development and low volatility. On the other hand, the admissible fluctuation band ± 2.25 % seems to be still too narrow for the remaining three currencies (CZK, HUF, PLN), thus the currencies should remain out of ERM II for some time.exchange rates; rate of return; volatility; ERM II; exchange rate stability criterion; new EU Member States

Efficiency of Banks in Regions at Different Stage of European Integration Process

This paper estimates commercial banks’ efficiency in three relatively homogenous groups of countries with different level of economic development and different involvement in the process of European integration. The first group consists of Portugal and Greece, the second group is represented by the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia and the third group includes Bulgaria and Romania. The paper aims to reveal whether the differences among regions and countries in the stage of European integration and economic situation are visible also in banking efficiency. Thus we test the hypothesis that the higher degree of European economic integration and economic development goes hand in hand with higher baking efficiency. Employing Data Envelopment Analysis on unconsolidated data we evaluate efficiency of banks in a core of their business - financial intermediation - in 2002-2003. Results suggest that differences in banking efficiency exist among analyzed regions and the hierarchy corresponds with the hierarchy of regions and countries in terms of economic development and degree of integration. Thus, low level of financial intermediation efficiency in Central and Eastern European countries may undermine their effort to boost the economic growth and catch-up the forerunning countries. The importance of the efficiency gap is underscored by the fact that only some of the catching-up countries recorded higher growth of efficiency than the forerunners.efficiency, banks, Data Envelopment Analysis, integration

Banking Efficiency in Visegrad Countries Before Joining the European Union

This paper is the first attempt to estimate commercial banks’ efficiency in the Visegrad region before joining the EU and also to consider differences in efficiency across the countries. Employing Data Envelopment Analysis, we analyze which of the banking sectors is the most efficient and whether there has been an improvement in banking intermediation efficiency since 1999. Incorporating censored Tobit regression analysis we try to detect whether the cross-country differences should be explained by country specific environmental factors or internal variables such as profitability, size or foreign ownership. Overall, the results suggest that since 1999 there has been, with the exception of Hungary, no improvement in efficiency, and its actual level reaches preferably moderate levels. Efficiency differences among Visegrad banking industries seem to be in the first place determined by country specific factors.banking efficiency; Visegead countries; Data Envelopment Analysis; Tobit model; banking intermediation

Estimation of the competitive conditions in the Czech banking sector

The paper uses New Empirical Industrial Organization approach, especially Panzar Rosse model to estimates the level of competition of the banking industry in the Czech Republic during the period 2001–2009. We apply Panzar-Rosse model to estimate H statistic for a panel of 15 banks, which represent almost 90 % of the market. This paper also measures and compares the degree of banking competition in two sub-periods, 2001–2005 and 2005–2009, in order to investigate development of the competitive structure of the Czech banking industry. We found that the market was in equilibrium during most of the estimation period, which is a necessary condition for sound evaluation of the competition level. While the market can be described as perfectly competitive in 2001–2005, the intensity of competition decreased after joining the EU in 2004 and the market can be characterized as one of monopolistic competition in 2005–2009. The monopolistic competition in the Czech banking market was also revealed if the full sample 2001–2009 is considered.Panzar-Rosse model; competition; banking sector; Czech Republic

How related are interbank and lending interest rates? Evidence on selected EU countries

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among interbank market interest rates and corporate loans interest rates in four countries from the euro area (Austria, Belgium, France and Italy), and in the Czech Republic. The paper also estimates a development of bank credit margin in banking industries of these countries in period from January 2004 to March 2010. Using Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests on monthly data we investigate long-term as well as short-term causalities between the interest rates. The results suggest that interest rate relationships differ in all selected countries, and also that foreign majority owners of the Czech banks could affect interest rate policy of the subsidiaries to offset losses realized by the parent banks.Cointegration; Granger Causality; Interbank Interest Rates; Lending Interest Rates; European Union

Theory of financial integration and achievements in the European Union

Financial integration is the process that has been occurring in the European Union for many years and that intensified after adoption of the common currency in 1999. This paper discusses the theoretical framework of financial integration, particularly the definition, typology, benefits and drawbacks. More opportunities for risk sharing and diversification, better allocation of capital among investment opportunities, and potential for higher economic growth were identified as the crucial benefits of financial integration. By contrast, we consider increased vulnerability to external macroeconomic shocks and financial crises transmitted to higher output and consumption volatility as the most serious drawbacks of financial integration. The paper also summarizes the progress in financial integration that has been achieved in individual segments of the European Union financial sector. It is evident that the most integrated are the euro area money market and the government bonds markets. The remaining financial markets are still rather fragmented.financial integration; financial markets; European Union; euro area